Unclassified · NSE: ITC
ITC share analysis
Fair value, business quality, the case for and against, and the risks — computed by VestCall from reported data, updated 14 October 2026.
ITC in one paragraph
ITC (NSE: ITC) was trading at ₹261 on 14 October 2026. VestCall scores its business health 59/100 (adequate). On valuation, the price sits in the “Valuation Premium” zone (₹254.77 and above) — above the modelled fair-value range. This is a reading of the evidence, not a buy or sell recommendation.
- Share price₹261
- Business health59/100
- Growth21/100
- Financial strength64/100
- Valuation99/100 · Fair
- Valuation zoneValuation Premium
- RiskMedium
Is ITC overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹261, ITC sits in VestCall’s “Valuation Premium” zone (₹254.77 and above): above the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 99/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
| Valuation zone | Price band | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Deeply Discounted | ₹220.72 – ₹232.3 | Furthest below the modelled fair-value range |
| Attractive Valuation | ₹232.3 – ₹248.57 | Below the modelled fair-value range |
| Fairly Valued | ₹248.57 – ₹254.77 | Inside the modelled fair-value range |
| Valuation Premium (current) | ₹254.77 and above | Above the modelled fair-value range |
The case for and against ITC
What supports the case
- Business Quality · 100/100.
- Capital Allocation · 100/100.
- Financial Strength · 64/100.
What needs proof
- Growth · 18/100.
- Management Stability · 36/100.
- Shareholding Quality · 56/100.
ITC key ratios
| Ratio | ITC | Unclassified median |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.48x | — |
| P/B | 0.71x | — |
| P/S | 0.61x | — |
| Return on equity (ROE) | 30.1% | — |
| Return on capital employed (ROCE) | 40.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 34.5% | — |
| Net margin | 25.9% | — |
| Current ratio | 3.04x | — |
ITC growth
Growth scores 21/100, with a negative trend, measured Mar 2023 to Mar 2026.
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | 3.7% |
| Net profit CAGR | 2.7% |
| EPS CAGR | 2.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest year | 4.4% |
| Profit growth, latest year | -40.0% |
ITC bull, base and bear case
Modelled annual return under three sets of stated assumptions over 5 years. These are model outputs, not a forecast or a promise of return.
| Scenario | Modelled CAGR | Weight | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | −4.2% | 24% | Growth decelerates to -0.2% and the multiple de-rates toward the cohort's trough. |
| Base | +4.6% | 52% | Earnings compound near the measured 4.6% and the multiple drifts toward its quality-adjusted warranted level. |
| Bull | +11.1% | 24% | Growth holds at 7.6% and the market pays the full premium the measured quality supports. |
Risks to watch in ITC
| Review trigger | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth falls below the thesis floor | 3.69% | below 8% | high · breached |
| Drawdown from the 52-week high exceeds tolerance | 38.09% | at or beyond 25% | low · breached |
| Return on equity falls below the quality floor | 30.06% | below 15% | high · armed |
| Promoter holding drops materially | 0% | below 0%, 3 points under the Mar 2026 filing | high · armed |
| Price runs more than two sigma above its own trend | 261 | at or above 407.77 | medium · armed |
| Leverage doubles from the level underwritten today | No leverage line in the balance sheet | unavailable | high · unmeasurable |
| Promoter pledge rises above tolerance | No pledge disclosed (the NSE filing for ITC could not be read either (nse_session_unavailable)) | above 10% | high · unmeasurable |
| Valuation reaches the top of its own cohort | No cohort multiple to rank against | at or above the 95th percentile | medium · unmeasurable |
An armed trigger is watched and has not fired; a breached one has.
How ITC shares have traded
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| 52-week range | ₹255 – ₹421.6 |
| Distance from 52-week high | −38.1% |
| Return, 3 months | −5.3% |
| Return, 12 months | −34.9% |
| Trend | Downtrend |
| Annualised volatility | 20.4% |
| Deepest drawdown, 2 years | −51.2% |
Questions about ITC shares
Is ITC overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹261, ITC sits in VestCall’s “Valuation Premium” zone (₹254.77 and above): above the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 99/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
Is ITC fundamentally strong?
VestCall scores ITC’s business health 59/100 (adequate). The strongest measured pillars are business quality and capital allocation. The ones that need proof are growth and management stability. Each pillar is computed from reported financials, and a pillar whose inputs were not reported is excluded rather than scored as zero.
What is ITC’s P/E ratio?
ITC trades at a P/E of 34.48x, on VestCall’s latest read. A multiple only means something against the business it buys: the quality-adjusted fair value on this page weighs it against ITC’s returns and growth.
What are the risks of investing in ITC?
The review triggers VestCall watches for ITC are: revenue growth falls below the thesis floor (revenue cagr below 8%); drawdown from the 52-week high exceeds tolerance (drawdown from 52-week high at or beyond 25%); return on equity falls below the quality floor (roe below 15%). On the fundamentals, growth is the weakest measured pillar at 18/100. A trigger is a named condition that would change the reading, published so the case against the stock is as visible as the case for it.
Is this a recommendation to buy or sell ITC?
No. VestCall states where ITC’s price sits against modelled value, what supports the case and what would break it, with every figure sourced. It does not issue buy, sell or hold calls or price targets. Vestmind is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst, and nothing on this page is personalised investment advice.
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