Unclassified · NSE: NTPC
NTPC share analysis
Fair value, business quality, the case for and against, and the risks — computed by VestCall from reported data, updated 14 October 2026.
NTPC in one paragraph
NTPC (NSE: NTPC) was trading at ₹311.4 on 14 October 2026. VestCall scores its business health 61/100 (adequate). On valuation, the price sits in the “Valuation Premium” zone (₹309.44 and above) — above the modelled fair-value range. This is a reading of the evidence, not a buy or sell recommendation.
- Share price₹311.4
- Business health61/100
- Growth47/100
- Financial strength63/100
- Valuation98/100 · Fair
- Valuation zoneValuation Premium
- RiskMedium
Is NTPC overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹311.4, NTPC sits in VestCall’s “Valuation Premium” zone (₹309.44 and above): above the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 98/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
| Valuation zone | Price band | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Deeply Discounted | ₹277.02 – ₹294.83 | Furthest below the modelled fair-value range |
| Attractive Valuation | ₹294.83 – ₹300.37 | Below the modelled fair-value range |
| Fairly Valued | ₹300.37 – ₹309.44 | Inside the modelled fair-value range |
| Valuation Premium (current) | ₹309.44 and above | Above the modelled fair-value range |
The case for and against NTPC
What supports the case
- Shareholding Quality · 84/100.
- Management Stability · 65/100.
- Financial Strength · 63/100.
- Business Quality · 61/100.
What needs proof
- Growth · 51/100.
- Capital Allocation · 56/100.
NTPC key ratios
| Ratio | NTPC | Unclassified median |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.3x | — |
| P/B | 0.29x | — |
| P/S | 0.26x | — |
| Return on equity (ROE) | 15.8% | — |
| Return on capital employed (ROCE) | 15.5% | — |
| Operating margin | 14.3% | — |
| Net margin | 14.5% | — |
| Current ratio | 0.94x | — |
NTPC growth
Growth scores 47/100, with a stable trend, measured Mar 2023 to Mar 2026.
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | 2.2% |
| Net profit CAGR | 17.2% |
| EPS CAGR | 17.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest year | -0.6% |
| Profit growth, latest year | 15.0% |
NTPC bull, base and bear case
Modelled annual return under three sets of stated assumptions over 5 years. These are model outputs, not a forecast or a promise of return.
| Scenario | Modelled CAGR | Weight | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | −0.4% | 19% | Growth decelerates to 3.6% and the multiple de-rates toward the cohort's trough. |
| Base | +9.9% | 55% | Earnings compound near the measured 9.9% and the multiple drifts toward its quality-adjusted warranted level. |
| Bull | +17.4% | 26% | Growth holds at 13.9% and the market pays the full premium the measured quality supports. |
Risks to watch in NTPC
| Review trigger | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth falls below the thesis floor | 2.17% | below 8% | high · breached |
| Return on equity falls below the quality floor | 15.75% | below 15% | high · armed |
| Promoter holding drops materially | 51.1% | below 48.1%, 3 points under the Mar 2026 filing | high · armed |
| Price runs more than two sigma above its own trend | 311.4 | at or above 514.85 | medium · armed |
| Drawdown from the 52-week high exceeds tolerance | 24.09% | at or beyond 25% | low · armed |
| Leverage doubles from the level underwritten today | No leverage line in the balance sheet | unavailable | high · unmeasurable |
| Promoter pledge rises above tolerance | No pledge disclosed (the NSE filing for NTPC could not be read either (nse_session_unavailable)) | above 10% | high · unmeasurable |
| Valuation reaches the top of its own cohort | No cohort multiple to rank against | at or above the 95th percentile | medium · unmeasurable |
An armed trigger is watched and has not fired; a breached one has.
How NTPC shares have traded
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| 52-week range | ₹309.7 – ₹410.2 |
| Distance from 52-week high | −24.1% |
| Return, 3 months | −10.6% |
| Return, 12 months | −8.2% |
| Trend | Downtrend |
| Annualised volatility | 24.8% |
| Deepest drawdown, 2 years | −32.7% |
Questions about NTPC shares
Is NTPC overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹311.4, NTPC sits in VestCall’s “Valuation Premium” zone (₹309.44 and above): above the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 98/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
Is NTPC fundamentally strong?
VestCall scores NTPC’s business health 61/100 (adequate). The strongest measured pillars are shareholding quality and management stability. The ones that need proof are growth and capital allocation. Each pillar is computed from reported financials, and a pillar whose inputs were not reported is excluded rather than scored as zero.
What is NTPC’s P/E ratio?
NTPC trades at a P/E of 14.3x, on VestCall’s latest read. A multiple only means something against the business it buys: the quality-adjusted fair value on this page weighs it against NTPC’s returns and growth.
What are the risks of investing in NTPC?
The review triggers VestCall watches for NTPC are: revenue growth falls below the thesis floor (revenue cagr below 8%); return on equity falls below the quality floor (roe below 15%); promoter holding drops materially (promoter holding below 48.1%, 3 points under the Mar 2026 filing). On the fundamentals, growth is the weakest measured pillar at 51/100. A trigger is a named condition that would change the reading, published so the case against the stock is as visible as the case for it.
Is this a recommendation to buy or sell NTPC?
No. VestCall states where NTPC’s price sits against modelled value, what supports the case and what would break it, with every figure sourced. It does not issue buy, sell or hold calls or price targets. Vestmind is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst, and nothing on this page is personalised investment advice.
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